Arctic Calculus
Cold, calculated research. We show our work — methodology write-ups, model post-mortems, and the archive from earlier projects. Nothing gets deleted.
Featured Research
How We Model NBA Player Props: A Multi-Factor Approach
Inside our NBA player prop model — how we blend PPM projections, defensive matchups, rest adjustments, pace, and blowout risk into a single probability estimate.
How We Beat Weather Markets: The Arctic Odds Methodology
A deep dive into our ensemble forecasting system, signal generation process, and the math behind hunting +EV opportunities in Kalshi temperature markets.
All Research
Golf Tournament Picks: Course Fit Meets Strokes Gained
How our golf model blends Strokes Gained rankings with course-specific skill demands to find mispriced tournament props across Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Make Cut, and Winner markets.
NHL Game Totals: Why Goalies Are the Whole Story
How our NHL game totals model uses goalie tiers, back-to-back fatigue, and pace adjustments to find mispriced over/unders in hockey.
Week 1 Recap: Signals, Wins, and Lessons from the Cold
Our first weekly recap covering 47 signals across 4 cities. What worked, what didn't, and the surprising edge we found in overnight model updates.
Content Schedule
See the model behind the research
The pro board publishes every model line before kickoff and grades it against the closing line after.
View the BoardFree and public. Losses included.