College Football Week 1 Board — 2026
Model lines for every FBS-vs-FBS game of opening week, published before kickoff. Generated 2026-08-17 by cfb-v0 (FBS team ratings, recency-weighted ridge). 50 games against FCS opponents are not shown — the model has no honest rating for them, so it does not pretend to.
Backtest vs the market (2264 games, 2023-2025)
Model error 12.95 pts · closing line 12.01 pts · ATS 49.6% (breakeven 52.4%)
The market is still ahead of this model, and this site will always say so. How the model works
| Date | Matchup | Model line | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 | North Carolina @ TCUNeutral | TCU -11.6 | 76.0% |
| 08-29 | San José State @ USC | USC -27 | 95.1% |
| 08-29 | NC State @ Virginia | Virginia -4.4 | 60.7% |
| 08-29 | Hawai'i @ Stanford | Stanford -2 | 54.9% |
| 08-29 | New Mexico State @ Florida State | Florida State -21.6 | 90.6% |
| 08-30 | Memphis @ UNLV | UNLV -3.3 | 57.9% |
| 09-03 | Massachusetts @ Rutgers | Rutgers -31.9 | 97.4% |
| 09-03 | Akron @ Wake Forest | Wake Forest -19.5 | 88.4% |
| 09-04 | Colorado @ Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech -8.7 | 70.3% |
| 09-04 | UAB @ Illinois | Illinois -24.8 | 93.5% |
| 09-04 | San José State @ Eastern Michigan | Eastern Michigan -1 | 52.5% |
| 09-05 | UTEP @ Oklahoma | Oklahoma -32.5 | 97.6% |
| 09-05 | Toledo @ Michigan State | Michigan State +0.5 | 48.8% |
| 09-05 | Miami @ Stanford | Stanford +22.4 | 8.6% |
| 09-05 | Fresno State @ USC | USC -19.1 | 87.9% |
| 09-05 | East Carolina @ Alabama | Alabama -19.5 | 88.3% |
| 09-05 | Oregon State @ Houston | Houston -13.3 | 79.2% |
| 09-05 | Coastal Carolina @ West Virginia | West Virginia -11.3 | 75.5% |
| 09-05 | North Texas @ Indiana | Indiana -25.3 | 93.9% |
| 09-05 | Ohio @ Nebraska | Nebraska -6.3 | 65.0% |
| 09-05 | Liberty @ James Madison | James Madison -20 | 88.9% |
| 09-05 | Miami (OH) @ Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh -9.5 | 72.0% |
| 09-05 | Ball State @ Ohio State | Ohio State -48.3 | 99.8% |
| 09-05 | Kent State @ South Carolina | South Carolina -34.6 | 98.3% |
| 09-05 | Baylor @ AuburnNeutral | Auburn -5.2 | 62.4% |
| 09-05 | Texas State @ Texas | Texas -20.4 | 89.4% |
| 09-05 | Boston College @ Cincinnati | Cincinnati -7.6 | 67.9% |
| 09-05 | Tulane @ Duke | Duke -4.2 | 60.0% |
| 09-05 | Boise State @ Oregon | Oregon -21.4 | 90.4% |
| 09-05 | Marshall @ Penn State | Penn State -24.2 | 93.0% |
| 09-05 | Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | Tulsa +2.7 | 43.5% |
| 09-05 | Northern Illinois @ Iowa | Iowa -25.9 | 94.3% |
| 09-05 | Wyoming @ Colorado State | Colorado State -0.7 | 51.7% |
| 09-05 | Missouri State @ Texas A&M | Texas A&M -27.3 | 95.2% |
| 09-05 | Arkansas State @ Memphis | Memphis -16.6 | 84.5% |
| 09-05 | Florida International @ South Florida | South Florida -17.7 | 86.0% |
| 09-05 | Sam Houston @ Troy | Troy -14.5 | 81.2% |
| 09-05 | Clemson @ LSU | LSU -2.9 | 57.0% |
| 09-05 | UL Monroe @ Mississippi State | Mississippi State -19.8 | 88.6% |
| 09-05 | Western Michigan @ Michigan | Michigan -22.1 | 91.2% |
| 09-05 | Florida Atlantic @ Florida | Florida -20.7 | 89.7% |
| 09-06 | UNLV @ Hawai'i | Hawai'i +5.4 | 37.0% |
| 09-06 | Central Michigan @ New Mexico | New Mexico -12.2 | 77.3% |
| 09-06 | UCLA @ California | California -3.8 | 59.2% |
| 09-06 | Western Kentucky @ Nevada | Nevada +3.4 | 41.7% |
| 09-06 | Washington State @ Washington | Washington -13.5 | 79.5% |
| 09-06 | Louisville @ Ole MissNeutral | Ole Miss -7.4 | 67.5% |
| 09-06 | Wisconsin @ Notre DameNeutral | Notre Dame -22 | 91.1% |
| 09-07 | SMU @ Florida State | Florida State +5.9 | 36.0% |
FBS power ratings
All 136 FBS teams, points versus an average FBS team on a neutral field. Home-field advantage: +3.47 pts.
| 1 | Ohio State | +27.13 |
| 2 | Indiana | +26.58 |
| 3 | Notre Dame | +25.05 |
| 4 | Oregon | +23.34 |
| 5 | Georgia | +19.09 |
| 6 | Miami | +18.77 |
| 7 | Ole Miss | +18.40 |
| 8 | Texas | +17.57 |
| 9 | Penn State | +17.23 |
| 10 | Alabama | +17.03 |
| 11 | Texas Tech | +16.59 |
| 12 | Michigan | +14.32 |
| 13 | USC | +14.16 |
| 14 | Texas A&M | +14.03 |
| 15 | Utah | +13.76 |
| 16 | Iowa | +13.30 |
| 17 | Tennessee | +13.15 |
| 18 | SMU | +13.02 |
| 19 | Washington | +13.00 |
| 20 | Oklahoma | +12.71 |
| 21 | Louisville | +10.98 |
| 22 | James Madison | +10.66 |
| 23 | Vanderbilt | +10.38 |
| 24 | Missouri | +10.20 |
| 25 | BYU | +9.95 |
| 26 | Clemson | +9.71 |
| 27 | LSU | +9.13 |
| 28 | South Carolina | +8.49 |
| 29 | Kansas State | +8.28 |
| 30 | TCU | +8.03 |
| 31 | Iowa State | +7.92 |
| 32 | Illinois | +7.05 |
| 33 | Arizona | +6.76 |
| 34 | Auburn | +6.50 |
| 35 | Florida | +5.63 |
| 36 | Arizona State | +5.45 |
| 37 | Boise State | +5.45 |
| 38 | Duke | +5.16 |
| 39 | Georgia Tech | +5.13 |
| 40 | South Florida | +5.00 |
| 41 | North Texas | +4.76 |
| 42 | Tulane | +4.47 |
| 43 | Kansas | +4.10 |
| 44 | Arkansas | +3.92 |
| 45 | Nebraska | +3.90 |
| 46 | Virginia | +3.81 |
| 47 | Florida State | +3.68 |
| 48 | Memphis | +3.49 |
| 49 | UNLV | +3.29 |
| 50 | Northwestern | +3.09 |
| 51 | Wisconsin | +3.03 |
| 52 | Pittsburgh | +3.02 |
| 53 | Washington State | +2.97 |
| 54 | NC State | +2.85 |
| 55 | Kentucky | +2.68 |
| 56 | Toledo | +2.35 |
| 57 | Old Dominion | +2.22 |
| 58 | Rutgers | +1.88 |
| 59 | UTSA | +1.68 |
| 60 | Navy | +1.43 |
| 61 | Minnesota | +1.42 |
| 62 | Baylor | +1.33 |
| 63 | Army | +1.21 |
| 64 | East Carolina | +1.05 |
| 65 | Ohio | +1.04 |
| 66 | Houston | +0.93 |
| 67 | Texas State | +0.61 |
| 68 | Cincinnati | +0.24 |
| 69 | Maryland | +0.13 |
| 70 | Virginia Tech | -0.14 |
| 71 | Colorado | -0.15 |
| 72 | Wake Forest | -0.15 |
| 73 | UCF | -0.56 |
| 74 | California | -0.87 |
| 75 | UCLA | -1.23 |
| 76 | Mississippi State | -1.27 |
| 77 | Fresno State | -1.51 |
| 78 | Michigan State | -1.63 |
| 79 | San Diego State | -2.60 |
| 80 | New Mexico | -2.93 |
| 81 | Miami (OH) | -3.06 |
| 82 | West Virginia | -3.27 |
| 83 | Marshall | -3.48 |
| 84 | North Carolina | -3.52 |
| 85 | Boston College | -3.88 |
| 86 | Utah State | -4.12 |
| 87 | Jacksonville State | -4.23 |
| 88 | Western Michigan | -4.33 |
| 89 | Troy | -4.34 |
| 90 | UConn | -4.45 |
| 91 | Western Kentucky | -4.86 |
| 92 | South Alabama | -4.96 |
| 93 | Air Force | -5.17 |
| 94 | Hawai'i | -5.62 |
| 95 | Louisiana Tech | -5.89 |
| 96 | Liberty | -5.89 |
| 97 | Syracuse | -6.28 |
| 98 | Louisiana | -6.49 |
| 99 | Stanford | -7.07 |
| 100 | Bowling Green | -7.65 |
| 101 | Purdue | -7.88 |
| 102 | Wyoming | -7.94 |
| 103 | Georgia Southern | -8.13 |
| 104 | Oregon State | -8.94 |
| 105 | Northern Illinois | -9.12 |
| 106 | Florida International | -9.23 |
| 107 | San José State | -9.41 |
| 108 | Kennesaw State | -9.43 |
| 109 | Delaware | -9.64 |
| 110 | Arkansas State | -9.65 |
| 111 | App State | -9.81 |
| 112 | Missouri State | -9.84 |
| 113 | Oklahoma State | -10.07 |
| 114 | Buffalo | -10.23 |
| 115 | Colorado State | -10.71 |
| 116 | Coastal Carolina | -11.11 |
| 117 | Florida Atlantic | -11.62 |
| 118 | Central Michigan | -11.71 |
| 119 | Temple | -11.74 |
| 120 | Nevada | -11.77 |
| 121 | Eastern Michigan | -11.87 |
| 122 | Southern Miss | -13.55 |
| 123 | UAB | -14.24 |
| 124 | New Mexico State | -14.42 |
| 125 | Rice | -14.46 |
| 126 | Georgia State | -14.78 |
| 127 | Middle Tennessee | -15.16 |
| 128 | Sam Houston | -15.39 |
| 129 | Tulsa | -16.21 |
| 130 | Akron | -16.22 |
| 131 | UTEP | -16.28 |
| 132 | UL Monroe | -17.58 |
| 133 | Ball State | -17.70 |
| 134 | Charlotte | -18.04 |
| 135 | Kent State | -22.61 |
| 136 | Massachusetts | -26.57 |
Model outputs are published for research and entertainment. Nothing here is betting advice — this model does not currently beat the closing line, and the record above says exactly how far behind it is.