Live for the 2026 football season

BUILDING THE NEXT GREAT
SPORTS BETTING MODEL

In public, loss by loss. An open football model from PolarBearQuant covering the pros and college — every line published before kickoff, every result graded against the closing line. No guru picks, no deleted losers. The market is still ahead. Watching the model chase it is the point.

Spread Board
Model lines for every pro and college game
Power Ratings
Every pro and college team, updated weekly
QB Values
Points above an average starter
Honest Record
Graded against the closing line

How This Site Works

This model does not beat the closing line yet, and the site says so on every page. What it offers instead is a standard: transparent, rigorous, open.

Transparent

Every prediction is timestamped before kickoff and graded against the closing line afterward — losses included. Nothing gets deleted, nothing gets cherry-picked.

Rigorous

Walk-forward backtests with no lookahead. Tuning seasons never touch evaluation seasons, so the numbers you see are the numbers the model actually earned.

Open

The methodology is public, down to the version history. Rejected model versions are documented alongside the one that shipped, so you can see what didn't work and why.

Timestamped & Graded

Every line published before kickoff and scored against the close, losses included

No Lookahead

Walk-forward backtests — tuning seasons never touch evaluation seasons

Public Methodology

How the model works, and which versions were rejected, is all documented

See the Board, Judge for Yourself

Every game, every model line, every assumed starter — published before kickoff and graded against the close after. If a model seller won't show you that, ask why.

View the Week 1 Board

Free and public. No signup, no picks for sale.